When thinking of Cozumel’s geographic future, it’s hard to
determine exactly what will happen in the next 1,000 to 1,000,000 years to this
quiet, Pleistocene limestone island off the coast of the Yucatan peninsula. From
before, we know Cozumel emerged from a Horst block (table of land pushed up
between two normal fault lines) capped by 122,000 year old Pleistocene limestone
deposited over older Miocene and Pliocene bedrock. For 125,000 years relative
to the mainland, no movement of Cozumel has occurred because of the tectonically
stable platform it sits atop of. If two words were used to describe Cozumel’s
landscape they would be: Karst and Coastal. Cozumel is part of the Caribbean Reef
physiographic district of the Atlantic-gulf coastal plain province. Cozumel has
barrier and fringing reefs, coral heads and an atoll formation. With the coral
reefs and very desirable climate, Cozumel has become a top vacation and scuba
diving destination for many tourists, and this in my opinion will have the greatest
impact on Cozumel’s future geography; that is until nature takes back over of
course.
1,000 years from
now
The isle of Cozumel in my prediction will look much
different than it does now, both above and below the surface; specifically below
its coastal waters. With an increase in popularity Cozumel will become littered
with resorts and all the amenities a tourist desires. This all has a cost, a
cost of Cozumel’s delicate resources. The mangroves, salt marshes, lagoons, coral
reefs and wildlife will fall victim to the “human element”. What remains of the resistant but not
invincible limestone coastline will be turned into more resorts with beaches; this
will mess up the natural sand recycling that takes place along most coastlines
and reefs. The inland soil, sand, and plant debris will not be able to migrate
to the sea or decompose properly, leading to possible ground water pollution, sterile
soil, loss of vegetation and a coral reef now dead, covered in sand. I feel the
island’s natural karst topography, underground and or exposed canotes, and landscape
will begin to change (weather, erode, or destroyed) a 1,000 years from now, but
in 10,000 years to 1,000,000 years from now is when the greatest changes will occur.
10,000 to
1,000,000 years from now
Cozumel’s atoll formation will begin to expose itself
through erosion, weathering and decay. The island will become sterile,
supporting little to no life terrestrial or marine life because of humanities
impact on such a delicate island/ecosystem. The human element will disappear from
Cozumel in the future because the island will have nothing left to give. Then, from
hurricanes and vicious storms will come years of heavy rainfall, weathering the
limestone, causing more cracks to form, more underground caverns and caves will
be created through chemical erosion and a changing water table. The island will
begin to collapse in on itself because of these caverns and underground rivers.
Eventually the island will become a classic barrier reef with a few remnants of
humanity, ex: concrete, rebar possibly old cars and pieces of metal. After years
and years life will return to the new Cozumel and again become a pristine
marine ecosystem with birds nesting on the resistant, remaining pieces of
limestone that once made isle Cozumel.
I can’t decide Cozumel’s future or precisely predict its
future but I can tell you one thing, even though the island will change it will
outlast mankind.
Sources
http://books.google.com/books?id=MUCc_u2hFWMC&pg=PA98&lpg=PA98&dq=cozumel+plate+tectonics&source=bl&ots=i9rstDbmTL&sig=Uesd7yGXJM0q8O0OmcPOEJTk4UI&hl=en&sa=X&ei=WZBbUPvvHYbM9gTa8YCwDw&ved=0CDEQ6AEwAw#v=onepage&q=cozumel%20plate%20tectonics&f=false
http://geography.about.com/od/physicalgeography/a/soil.htm
Sources
http://books.google.com/books?id=MUCc_u2hFWMC&pg=PA98&lpg=PA98&dq=cozumel+plate+tectonics&source=bl&ots=i9rstDbmTL&sig=Uesd7yGXJM0q8O0OmcPOEJTk4UI&hl=en&sa=X&ei=WZBbUPvvHYbM9gTa8YCwDw&ved=0CDEQ6AEwAw#v=onepage&q=cozumel%20plate%20tectonics&f=false
http://geography.about.com/od/physicalgeography/a/soil.htm