Cozumel’s future physical geography?

When thinking of Cozumel’s geographic future, it’s hard to determine exactly what will happen in the next 1,000 to 1,000,000 years to this quiet, Pleistocene limestone island off the coast of the Yucatan peninsula. From before, we know Cozumel emerged from a Horst block (table of land pushed up between two normal fault lines) capped by 122,000 year old Pleistocene limestone deposited over older Miocene and Pliocene bedrock. For 125,000 years relative to the mainland, no movement of Cozumel has occurred because of the tectonically stable platform it sits atop of. If two words were used to describe Cozumel’s landscape they would be: Karst and Coastal. Cozumel is part of the Caribbean Reef physiographic district of the Atlantic-gulf coastal plain province. Cozumel has barrier and fringing reefs, coral heads and an atoll formation. With the coral reefs and very desirable climate, Cozumel has become a top vacation and scuba diving destination for many tourists, and this in my opinion will have the greatest impact on Cozumel’s future geography; that is until nature takes back over of course.

1,000 years from now

The isle of Cozumel in my prediction will look much different than it does now, both above and below the surface; specifically below its coastal waters. With an increase in popularity Cozumel will become littered with resorts and all the amenities a tourist desires. This all has a cost, a cost of Cozumel’s delicate resources. The mangroves, salt marshes, lagoons, coral reefs and wildlife will fall victim to the “human element”.  What remains of the resistant but not invincible limestone coastline will be turned into more resorts with beaches; this will mess up the natural sand recycling that takes place along most coastlines and reefs. The inland soil, sand, and plant debris will not be able to migrate to the sea or decompose properly, leading to possible ground water pollution, sterile soil, loss of vegetation and a coral reef now dead, covered in sand. I feel the island’s natural karst topography, underground and or exposed canotes, and landscape will begin to change (weather, erode, or destroyed) a 1,000 years from now, but in 10,000 years to 1,000,000 years from now is when the greatest changes will occur.

10,000 to 1,000,000 years from now

Cozumel’s atoll formation will begin to expose itself through erosion, weathering and decay. The island will become sterile, supporting little to no life terrestrial or marine life because of humanities impact on such a delicate island/ecosystem. The human element will disappear from Cozumel in the future because the island will have nothing left to give. Then, from hurricanes and vicious storms will come years of heavy rainfall, weathering the limestone, causing more cracks to form, more underground caverns and caves will be created through chemical erosion and a changing water table. The island will begin to collapse in on itself because of these caverns and underground rivers. Eventually the island will become a classic barrier reef with a few remnants of humanity, ex: concrete, rebar possibly old cars and pieces of metal. After years and years life will return to the new Cozumel and again become a pristine marine ecosystem with birds nesting on the resistant, remaining pieces of limestone that once made isle Cozumel.

I can’t decide Cozumel’s future or precisely predict its future but I can tell you one thing, even though the island will change it will outlast mankind. 


Sources

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cozumel

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Karst_topography

http://books.google.com/books?id=MUCc_u2hFWMC&pg=PA98&lpg=PA98&dq=cozumel+plate+tectonics&source=bl&ots=i9rstDbmTL&sig=Uesd7yGXJM0q8O0OmcPOEJTk4UI&hl=en&sa=X&ei=WZBbUPvvHYbM9gTa8YCwDw&ved=0CDEQ6AEwAw#v=onepage&q=cozumel%20plate%20tectonics&f=false

http://etd.fcla.edu/UF/UFE0041046/batunalpuche_a.pdf

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Karst

http://geography.about.com/cs/physicalgeography1/a/rockcycle.htm

http://geography.about.com/od/physicalgeography/a/soil.htm